Time in the Market
               Not Timing the Market

WAKE UP, IT’S STARING YOU IN THE FACE

I’m always surprised when sudden corrections in the crypto markets ‘surprise’ other investors. WAKE UP! The era of the HODL heroes is fading; this is no longer a ‘place your bets’ market or a punter’s paradise.

Those of us who have been here for over a decade understood the implications of Bitcoin’s baptism into the ETF world, which meant our beloved market was now playing with the Wall Street heavyweights. These players can move prices like a migrating flock of birds with just a gust of their financial influence. This is our new reality, which I’ve been writing about for the last year.

Prominent positions are now being placed for modest returns of 2-6% at aggressive frequencies across numerous accounts within some of the most formidable trading houses of our time. As governments grapple with regulation, those who fund these governments are making strategic moves, causing unprecedented volatility. The journey to a $100K BTC will be more of a crab walk than a leap upstream, so it’s time to wake up and start behaving like a trader.

Build discipline into your portfolio. Bitcoin’s recent attempt to reach $72K was met with the significant presence of Wall Street, sending out a reminder that this is their turf now. If, like me, you had a lens on the buildup of short derivatives positions around the $72,000 level, you would have anticipated downward pressure from those on the street, further amplified by increased spot selling on major exchanges like Binance and OKX. Note that OKX is slowly and quietly turning into a monster of strength here in Singapore.

Despite this pullback, I remain optimistic, as I’m aware of the economic conditions that currently occupy our landscape, especially with potential rate cuts that could propel Bitcoin to new all-time highs. But as I keep saying to the ‘new’ crypto traders coming into this space, please, for God’s sake, take some time to understand not just our market but the players within it, coupled with how economic indicators could trigger a reaction. It’s not just about being reactive but proactive to the effects of news content.

Macro mindsets and understanding liquidity and the ripple effects of ongoing volatility in our market are needed to navigate these turbulent waters. It’s essential to adopt a trader’s mindset, focus on strategic moves, and maintain discipline in your trading book. Bitcoin’s price movements reflect the dynamic interplay of global economic conditions, regulatory developments, and market sentiment. So wake up, stay informed, and be adaptable.

Focus is needed, as there seems to be an essence of ‘hope’ in the air regarding lower U.S. interest rates. But like anyone living on ‘hope’ and not macro disciplines, expectations were quashed due to negative sentiment across the market, which basically means ‘the play’ wasn’t ready.

This was further exacerbated by a sharp decline in the shares of GameStop’s modern-day saga of hype versus reality. This stock, propelled to astonishing heights by a staged online community, stirred up old emotions and pumped enough FOMO into the air that even my mother called me and asked, ‘Hey, what should I do?’ Despite the excitement, the reality remains stark: declining sales, profitability issues, and a business model in desperate need of reinvention caused this ‘fart in the wind’ to stink up the social media airwaves and even make it back into mainstream news. Even Jim Cramer got excited, and that’s a ‘short market indicator’ in itself.

Anyway, back to crypto. Bitcoin encountered large sell walls on major exchanges like Binance and OKX as it approached the $70,000 mark. As we’ve seen this movie before, we (at the E1vis Fund) made a pact that if we hit 70k again, we’d short, and guess what? We did. Result.

These sell walls acted as formidable resistance, leading to a rapid price drop once Bitcoin reached this level. The selloff in Bitcoin triggered a ripple effect across the broader cryptocurrency market, with other major cryptos experiencing significant declines. This highlights the interconnected nature of crypto assets and how market dynamics in one asset can influence the entire market. These factors combined to create a highly volatile trading environment, resulting in Bitcoin’s price falling below the $70,000 mark.

The crypto market is no longer a playground for casual investors but a battlefield for disciplined traders. Bitcoin’s recent attempt at $72K and its subsequent fall highlight the importance of strategic thinking and adaptability. Economic indicators, central bank policies, and market sentiment will continue to shape the crypto narrative.

WAKE UP.

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