Time in the Market
               Not Timing the Market

CASINO EVERGRANDE ROYAL

Did anyone watch that new movie, Casino Evergrande Royal ?

Last week, I watched what can only be described as a financial thriller, imbued with a sense of impending doom and a glimpse into a possible future. This wasn’t your typical Hollywood blockbuster. Instead, it was a nail-biting journey through the potential collapse of the global financial system, triggered by the liquidation of China’s real estate giant, Evergrande. The film masterfully weaves a tale of economic downfall, where hedge funds, big banks, and even governments are pushed to the brink of disaster.

The Hedge Fund Havoc :-

The movie opens with a foreboding scene of hedge fund managers watching in horror as news of Evergrande’s impending liquidation breaks. The narrative explains that these funds, heavily invested in Evergrande bonds, derivatives, and other financial instruments, face catastrophic losses. The domino effect is immediate and devastating. Write-downs damage their performance, triggering margin calls and forcing the sale of assets at fire-sale prices. The volatility of the situation wreaks havoc on their carefully laid strategies, turning the market into a frenzied battleground. Yet, amidst this chaos, a group of savvy hedge fund managers sees a golden opportunity in distressed debt, hoping to acquire Evergrande’s assets at bargain prices for potential future gains.

Big Banks on the Brink

The film then shifts focus to the big banks, depicted as giants with feet of clay. The potential collapse of Evergrande triggers intense regulatory scrutiny, with governments and financial watchdogs around the world tightening the screws. The movie highlights the interconnectedness of global finance, showing how Evergrande’s downfall could amplify losses across the sector, affecting liquidity and risk appetite of banks worldwide. The most gripping scenes involve major banks grappling with the reality of their substantial loan exposure to Evergrande, facing massive impairment charges, and struggling to maintain their capital ratios.

A Connected World in Crisis

As the plot progresses, the film emphasizes that this isn’t just a story about finance. It’s about the very fabric of our globalized world, where everything is interconnected, from the darkest corners of the underground economy to the glittering skyscrapers of Wall Street. The film poses haunting questions: Can we have a new government, banking system, technology, medical, and educational systems without a total financial reset? The answer seems to be a resounding no, as the movie illustrates how the existing systems are propped up by the fragile fiat USD.

The Desperate Measures

In a dramatic turn of events, the film showcases how banks, desperate to survive the Evergrande liquidation, engage in coordinated buybacks and asset restructuring. These banks, not compliant with Basel 3 and ISO-20022, are depicted as scrambling to find solutions to stave off their demise. The most controversial and chilling aspect of the movie is the portrayal of these banks resorting to confiscating customer deposits – a move that leads to widespread panic, bank runs, and a total shutdown of ATMs and credit systems.

The Dinar Deux Ex Machina

In the climax, the movie introduces an unexpected savior – the reinstatement of the Iraq Dinar. This plot twist is presented as a masterstroke by the ‘White Hats’, who are orchestrating a grand plan to bring down the corrupt financial system and pave the way for a new economic order. The film suggests that this move will hit two targets with one stone – the underground criminal world and the parasitic banks.

The Season Ending :-  A World at a Crossroads

The movie ends on a cliffhanger, leaving the audience to ponder the future. It suggests a world at a crossroads, with the old order crumbling and a new, uncertain future emerging. The final scenes question the motives of political figures, hinting at a deep-seated panic among the elite.

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